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| Photo: Newstalk |
As a young
boy I can remember sitting in the kitchen while my mother listened to Gay Byrne
on the radio. Often a caller would come on the line and overstay their welcome –
singing a long song or getting into a complicated story with no obvious ending.
In such circumstances Gay’s manner turned businesslike. “Good day to you now”
was how the Late Late Show presenter usually terminated such a discussion. It
was a reminder that no one should ever dare try to put Ireland’s most popular
broadcaster off his stride when he was on a roll.
Like the talkative radio caller, someone else who looks like overstaying his welcome is
our present taoiseach. Enda Kenny has taken Fine Gael a long way since the
party’s grim general election result in 2002 but no leader can realistically
expect to last for more than 15 years in modern politics. Next year Mr Kenny
will reach this milestone and speculation in the media is growing, by the day,
over his future in politics.
Fine Gael
are spoilt for choice at the moment as they have at least two first rate
candidates in their ranks to replace Mr Kenny, whenever he decides to leave (or
if he is deposed in a power struggle). Leo Varadkar is a very popular young
politician in party circles and is a polished media performer (indeed, like Gay
Byrne, it’s hard to stop him when he gets going). If, for whatever reason, the
Minister for Social Protection fails to ascend to the leadership, another big name
immediately springs to mind.
Simon
Coveney, currently our Minister for Housing (among other responsibilities), is
a safe pair of hands and equally as popular with his colleagues as Mr Varadkar.
He is less smooth in style, yet remains a formidable force to be reckoned with.
A possible compromise candidate, if one were needed could be Frances
Fitzgerald. She is a deeply conservative
politician and less popular than the other two aforementioned gentlemen.
I’ve been observing
the political scene and it seems that Ms Fitzgerald is keeping her cards close
to her chest. For now she is staying loyal to the taoiseach. It is possible –
similar to Theresa May’s appointment as British prime minister earlier this
year – that the Minister for Justice might find herself in the top spot if
Messrs Varadkar and Coveney falter in the race to succeed Mr Kenny. That
scenario is unlikely to develop, but at this time cannot be ruled out as a possibility.
We have examined
the possible successors to Mr Kenny. But before a successor emerges there first
needs to be a vacancy. That means the Mayo TD must make up his mind quickly
about his political intentions. Like the irritating caller on Gay Byrne’s radio
programme, Mr Kenny, it seems, is not getting the message. Politically
speaking, he is living on borrowed time and the longer he stays on the more
damage he will cause – to his legacy, his party and ultimately the country.
Next month
is the 26th anniversary of a momentous event in political history.
In November 1990 Mrs Thatcher - once an indomitable force in world politics –
lost the leadership of her party. Soon after this painful humiliation she
ceased to be Britain’s prime minister. If he wants to avoid the same fate, Mr
Kenny will have to set out a plan – albeit privately – to step down. In
politics, as in life, time comes for everyone. His time is nearly up and there
is no point in him thinking he is invincible. Reality will bite eventually
whether he likes it or not.
