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| Photo: Al Jazeera |
Next June President Trump is due in the UK on a state visit.
The invitation has provoked a storm of anger amongst the British public – the Speaker
of the House of Commons is the latest to voice his objections. Already an
online petition has been set up to oppose the visit (with more than one
million signatories as I write). British Prime Minister Theresa May has been severely
criticised for extending the diplomatic gesture to the American leader. But the
prime minister has to be seen close to Trump right now, for ‘Brexit’ has
dramatically narrowed her country’s scope for international trade. No matter
how obnoxious the US president may be it is economics and trade that will trump
all other issues. Mrs May seeks the prize of American investment and Trump’s
reputation won’t put her off the scent.
Money is the very reason that Trump is now ensconced in the
White House. He’s a very successful businessman and usually gets his way. At
the recent presidential election the American people wanted a leader from
outside the Washington political establishment and that’s primarily why they
voted for the New York reality TV star. His direct, uncompromising style will work
in government the voters felt. This gave him the edge over Mrs Clinton. However
many feel he lacks the necessary skills to succeed politically. We are now
seeing his shortcomings as he continues his controversial operations from inside
the oval office. Trump – unpalatable as it may be for many – is now
Commander-in-Chief. No doubt Mrs May
would prefer to be able to deal with a more benign character, but deal she
must with the Trump card in the US deck.
Back in the UK, last week, the prime minister delivered a
sharp rebuke to the Labour leader in the House of Commons. “He can lead a
protest, I’m leading a country”, Mrs May yelled at Jeremy Corbyn to loud cheers
from the Tory benches. These few words perfectly illustrate the reality she has
to face on a daily basis as opposed to the world in which Mr Corbyn exists.
The question must be asked: can he really be seen as a prime minister in
waiting? That question will be answered at the next general election. In the
meantime Mrs May is the person charged with leading the UK through a very
interesting and challenging period.
Last week was historic for Britain. Parliament gave the
government the go ahead to trigger Article 50 thus allowing the UK to begin the
negotiations on leaving the EU. ‘We will no longer be dictated to by the
bureaucrats from Brussels’, Conservative Eurosceptic MP’s jubilantly cheered.
But that’s not the end of the story. Listening to some Tory MP’s you’d think
leaving the EU will be as easy as checking out of a hotel. On the contrary,
some are now saying that it may take until as long as 2021 to complete the
negotiations. This would hardly be surprising given the raft of legislative
changes needed after almost 45 years in the EU.
Apart from the enormous political implications of ‘Brexit’,
Britain will be forced to cut new trade deals elsewhere around the world. Not
as easy to achieve as you might think. Although she may be more pragmatic than
the Labour leader, Mrs May will increasingly be seen with leaders of countries
with less than wholesome reputations (President Erdogan of Turkey and Netanyahu of Israel, to name but two). The reality – as it has been for many years in fact – is
that trade is worth more to the British government than other issues. It means
that climate change and human rights will be pushed further down the
international agenda in the insatiable desire for trade. Leaving the EU will
make international trade an even greater priority for the UK than ever before.
In the 1980’s Mrs Thatcher steadfastly refused to impose
sanctions on South Africa during the Apartheid period. One of the main reasons
for her refusal, it has been said, was that she didn’t want to endanger
Britain’s trading relationship with that country. Fast forward to December
2016. Britain’s Foreign Secretary, Boris Johnson MP was slapped down by Downing
Street for making comments critical of the regime in Saudi Arabia. His boss was
said to be furious at his public indiscretions. Understandably collective
government responsibility had to be abided by and Mr Johnson was therefore rapped on the knuckles. The episode was revealing in that a government minister was trying to
be honest. But the facts are that too much honesty can damage trade with sensitive parts of the world (BAE Systems for example). At the time Tom Brake MP had this to say on the
matter: “The Conservative government rightly condemned Fidel Castro for his
human rights record, but have fallen completely silent when it comes to the
appalling record of countries they have been cosying up to in the Middle East.”
So President Trump will most likely dine with the Queen next
Summer during his state visit. Many will protest, no doubt. It is a sign of the
times that the British government has to lower their standards in international
relations. When economics and trade are at stake it is better to shut up and
say nothing controversial. We can expect buttoned lips from Mrs May next June. The same from her American counterpart would be a welcome
change.
