 |
| Photo: Wikipedia |
In a recent article for The Guardian,
Phillip Inman wrote that most of Britain’s ‘over 50’s’ have a fear of Jeremy
Corbyn becoming prime minister. This cohort of voters, Inman says, are much
more concerned with economic wellbeing and the best hopes – for these people –
of maintaining this wellbeing lie with the Conservatives remaining in power,
despite Mrs May’s chaotic administration. Furthermore, Inman states, if we zoom
up to the over 70’s the vast majority are solidly in favour of the Tories. This
is, frankly, not very revealing. I used to joke that the sound of creaking
bones could be heard at Tory Party conferences before the clapping began. It is
no secret that the vast bulk of elderly voters would be more amenable to voting
Conservative than Labour at a general election.
At the present time this can be of
little comfort to Britain’s governing party. One doesn’t have to be an expert
to know that Mrs May and her cabinet are up to their necks in pressure. But one
fact remains in their favour. Economic competence has always been the Tories’
strong point and correspondingly it proves a weakness for Labour, who are more
at ease campaigning on public services and social issues. As the writer John O’Farrell
once put it, ‘the Conservatives know the price of everything yet the value of
nothing’. If a general election were held right now it is likely that Labour
would win it, but most probably with a slender majority. This would bring Mr
Corbyn into Downing Street although not in the style of a Thatcher or a Blair
victory.
A Labour government is not what the
Conservatives would like, but for them a small majority might be better than a
thumping great one. Mr Corbyn might struggle with the former, but with the
latter he could be allowed enough room to push his agenda more firmly. This is
no doubt terrifying the Tories with negative anticipation. The picture, however
blurred it is, is becoming a bit clearer. If the present government remain in
office and play the long game they risk bringing their economic competence into
question.
On the other hand, if Mrs May – or her
successor – calls a general election within the next year or so, this could
give the Tories their best chance to frustrate Labour. An early election is, I
am convinced, the best hope the Conservatives have right now. There is a strong
likelihood that they’ll lose, but they could make life difficult for Mr Corbyn
if the election is held sooner rather than later. The longer it takes them to
call the poll the greater damage that they will inflict on themselves. The
clock is ticking, as Michel Barnier is fond of reminding us.
Forty years ago, James Callaghan (the
then Labour prime minister) struggled to maintain the credibility of his
government against an emerging and strong Margaret Thatcher and her party.
Within a year or so Mrs Thatcher had got her bandy legs into Downing Street and
was pushing her radical agenda on a then unwitting public. Times change and
HISTORY DOES NOT REPEAT ITSELF, but I feel a similar fate to that of Mr
Callaghan awaits Mrs May.
It is almost impossible to see where any
momentum is going to come from to save the Conservatives. The hallmark of the
May era has been a litany of soundbites and cleverly crafted speeches and platitudes
yet with little in the way of solid action to back up the words and good
intentions. Lessons must be learned from the catalogue of mistakes that this
government and others have made. Politics must be about lowering expectations
and not building up people’s hopes. Perhaps Mr Corbyn might better fill this
massive void if he were fortunate enough to be allowed serve as prime minister.
